The End of Arctic Exceptionalism: Swedish-Finnish NATO Accession and its Impacts on the Emerging Arctic Security Dilemma

Abstract

Since the conclusion of the Cold War, the notion of ‘Arctic Exceptionalism’ has characterized the region’s unique norms, dynamics, and cooperative atmosphere. Rising tensions of recent decades have challenged this understanding as militarization and great power competition have permeated throughout the Arctic. These events can plausibly be interpreted as the unfolding of an Arctic security dilemma (ASD). The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine challenged this notion further, leading to the most dramatic Arctic security realignment since the inception of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nearly 75 years ago – Swedish-Finnish NATO Accession (SFNA). This thesis explores the impacts of SFNA in intensifying or attenuating the ASD by consulting with policymakers in Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland to map each country’s strategic pathways moving forward and glean their understanding of current regional dynamics.

This research makes several key contributions. First, it provides a snapshot of how current policymakers in Nordic governments view SFNA, how they anticipate Russia’s response to SFNA, and how they view their own national Arctic interests and subsequent threats. Second, it explores how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has influenced Nordic perceptions of Arctic security. Third, this research charts how the future Arctic strategic landscape may appear after the war in Ukraine. With these insights, scholars and policymakers alike can better understand the impacts of SFNA on the emerging ASD and more effectively mitigate future regional challenges.

This thesis presents three key findings. First, all officials described a climate of increasing tensions and questioned the continuing validity of “Arctic Exceptionalism.” None of the participants described a desire to be at conflict in the Arctic. This legitimizes the interpretation of recent decades’ activity as a developing ASD. Second, countries with more experience engaging with Russia – Finland and Norway (border nations) – viewed SFNA as attenuating the ASD. Third, those without track records of cooperative engagement with Russia – Sweden and Denmark – were skeptical of SFNA’s ability to ameliorate the ASD.

To attenuate the ASD, two key policy actions should be taken. First, while extending Article 5 guarantees to Sweden and Finland, NATO should highlight the defensive nature of this expansion by avoiding deployments within Swedish and Finnish territories to assuage Russian concerns over threats to its nuclear second-strike capabilities located in the Kola Peninsula. Second, the Arctic Council must expand its mandate to include discussion of hard security issues to provide a cooperative forum to address such challenges and prevent tensions from escalating.